Exit Poll Movement: Where Key Groups Sorted Out
Looking at the 2024 exit polls shows Harris lost ground among key demographic groups, helping Trump and Republicans build a more diverse coalition
It’s never a great idea to examine a trainwreck while the debris is still tumbling around. But in the spirit of such endeavors … the 2024 exit poll data has been released.* And it shows that Harris lost ground among key demographic groups, while Trump made important inroads to strengthen his coalition. Some of the most significant changes:
Latinos: Trump improved his share among Latinos by a substantial 14% points … going from 32% in 2020 to 46% in 2024. But it’s among Latino men that Trump saw his largest gains … going from 36% in 2020 to 55% this election … a 19-point shift and moving them to the win column. Latino men made up about 6% of the electorate nationwide. That means Trump’s improved performance among Latino men accounts for about a 2-point bump in his national vote total. Latino women saw a 8-point shift in Trump’s direction, from 30% in 2020 to 38% in 2024.
The Marriage Gap: Trump improved among women nationally by 3 points compared to 2020, from 42% to 45%. The breakdown by marital status tells the story. Harris lost ground among unmarried women compared to Biden’s 2020 performance, from 63% to 59%. Meanwhile, Trump saw support stay the same among married women at 51%. Harris still won women female voters by 8 points, but the improved performance among female voters that Democrats were counting on didn’t materialize.
Less than college voters: Trump improved his performance among voters without a college degree, going up 6 points from 50% to 56%. This group made up 59% of the electorate this year, meaning his improvement with these voters contributed to about a 6-point bump in his national vote total. Harris's degradation among this group lost her the election. Contrary to what you might think, Trump did not improve his performance among whites without a college degree. In fact, he slipped 1 point (from 67% in 2020 to 66% in this election). Voters of color without a college degree had the largest swing. Trump improved by 8 points, from 26% to 34%. Trump’s ability to court a sizable enough group of minority non-college voters gave him the edge.
Trump abortion voters: 18% of the total national electorate were pro-abortion Trump voters, saying that abortion should be legal in all or most cases. Trump’s ability to hold these voters was critically important. Voters who said abortion should be legal in most cases split 51% for Harris and 47% for Trump.
18-29-Year-Olds: Trump saw a 7-point improvement among voters under 30, from 36% to 43%. Trump managed to pull just shy of Harris among men 18 to 29, losing them by only 2 points (49% to 47%).
65 and Older Voters: If there is a bright spot for Democrats, Trump saw a 3-point decline among voters over 65 … going from 52% in 2020 to 49%. Harris tied Trump with this group. Voters over 65 made up a larger share of the electorate this election than in 2020, going from 22% of all voters to 28%.
Political Independents: Trump improved his performance among political independents by 5 points, up from 41% to 46%. Harris lost ground by the same margin.
Favorability: Trump ended the race with a 46% favorability rating, according to the exit poll. That’s the same as his rating in 2020. 8% of Trump voters had a negative view of him, compared to just 5% of Harris voters who had a negative view of her.
Harris failed to rebuild the Biden 2020 coalition or find other groups to form a new one. Instead, Trump grew a new, more diverse coalition by making important gains among non-white voters. Republicans are now a more racially diverse, working-class party with important inroads into younger male voters. Trump’s favorability should taper Republican expectations, but these are notable changes.
How did the polls do?
Based on my earlier analysis of national polling leading up to the election, the polls correctly predicted Harris’s problems with Latinos, young voters, independents, and female voters. The polls also correctly predicted Harris’s marginal improvement among college-educated voters. The polls incorrectly predicted Harris losing ground among black voters. Her performance was the same as Biden’s in 2020.
Most national polls showed the race within the margin of error. Over at Lunchtime Politics (the other great newsletter of Certus Insights), Ron had Harris averaged at a +1.2 point advantage over Trump. We’ll see where the popular vote lands, but it will be close. In that respect, the polls won’t be that far off. They correctly predicted shifts in several demographic groups. In that, they were directionally indicative of problems for Harris. It seems that pollsters got it mostly right.
*Exit poll data is not final and may shift over the next few days as it is adjusted.